We've passed 400ppm: now what?

Date 23rd May 2013

You've probably heard the appalling news that, for the first time in human history, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has just passed 400 parts per million. (Eh? Scientific America's explanation here).  It's been 2.5 million years since CO2 was last at this level - at which point, temperatures were 2 to 3 degrees C higher, the Arctic was ice-free, global weather patterns were completely different, sea levels were up to 40 metres higher and humans did not live on the planet. 

Which means that we are heading for an even worse scenario than the one we depicted in The Age of Stupid: Africa uninhabitable, continental Europe mostly desert, Australia's agricultural system destroyed, hundreds of major cities underwater, hundreds of millions of people dead and many more on the move. Possibly within my lifetime (born 1972, hoping to live to 2062), but almost certainly within my daughter Eva's (born 2012, hoping to live to 2102).

New Orleans in 2055

 

 

Scientists (proper ones, not oil-industry sponsored) have calculated the safe upper limit of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to be 350 parts per million (hence the campaign, 350.org, see their video explanation here). The last time we were in this safe zone was October 1988, which itself was a long way passed the 280ppm we were at when we started seriously burning fossil fuels at the beginning of industrialisation. To get back to safety at 350ppm, we need nothing less than a "transformation to a low-carbon economy for the entirety of human civilisation", as Mark Lynas says in Age of Stupid, which is "obviously a huge, monumental task, probably the greatest that humanity has ever faced. ". 

So what the hell are we all going to do now?

-> Should we pile on the pressure to the UN, in the hope that politicians defy all expectations and finally make the international agreement needed to bring global emissions down extremely quickly?  
-> Should we start a National Strike, bringing the country to a standstill until the Government goes onto a war footing on climate change?  
-> Should we go into survivalist mode, buying up guns and fortifying our homes? It sounds extreme, but it's not a coincidence that some people working on climate change are buying pieces of land far away from centres of population to move their families
-> Should we party party party now, flying all round the world gorging on fossil fuels, pretending we don't know it's happening?
-> Should we take the moral high ground and continue to cut our own emissions, despite knowing it will make F-all difference? 
-> Should we transfer all our assets into geo-engineering, on the miniscule off-chance that someone will come up with a tech fix in time? 
-> Should we leave our jobs and devote our working lives to building a new political movement to take over when this one inevitably collapses in the face of the catastrophe it did nothing to stop?
-> Should we join our local Transition Towns, working together to build resilience into our communities, despite it being hard to see what difference that could make when continental Europe becomes a desert and 700 million people start heading north?
-> Should we stockpile cyanide? You think I'm exaggerating, but a close friend of mine, who has four children, said she plans to kill herself and them when it comes to it.

I am extremely interested to know what everyone is thinking and whether anyone sees any positive ways forward... Please add a comment below.  

Yours in despair, 
Franny

 

NB Comments will be moderated before being added below. This debate is also on Facebook here and on Twitter via @frannyarmstrong

on 24th May 2013 said:

I have been a Green person since the 1970's and eventually became a Mechanical Engineer and eventually owned my own business saving energy.  I retired in 2004 after putting systems into buildings that save about 100 million US dollars per year.  

I don't say this to gloat, but to show that it is possible to save energy in a big way by making it a viable option to others.   I installed Carbon Monoxide control systems into Parking Garages for 20 years. Very simple to do.  

The payback to the owner is in 4 - 8 months.   The system pays for itself in 4-8 months and keeps doing this for decades.   I am not a genius.  My one full time employee had no experience in any of what I did and she has made millions of dollars too.   Again, i don't mean to toot here, I just want to let others know you don't have to do your best at home to save energy only (which I do 100%),  but you can make a huge difference if you try to find some opportuinity to save tons on energy for other businesses.

I lose sleep proably every night on CC thoughts.  Not because it is happening, that's a given, but that people are so freakin stupid!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.  Look I have refused to have children so I have not much to be concerned about long term, But I am concerened; and mostly concerned just for all the life that has been here 1000's of times longer than our stupid asses have been thrashing our beautiful big home.   Good luck.  Gary

on 24th May 2013 said:

True, modern humans didn't live on the planet 2.5 million years ago,  but our Astralopithecine ancestors did.   There's no reason we cannot survive just as well as they did. 

The world hasn't warmed in the last 15 years despite our fossil fuel consumption.    Don't worry about CO2 induced climate change- just push for nuclear energy- breeder reactors-sooner or later we'll have to switch energy sources.

   

on 24th May 2013 said:

The first step is to overcome despair. No enlightened response can eminate from this place. Put simply, all the ills we are now facing are manifestations of a lack of understanding of our place as human beings in the web of life.  We are not the center of the universe, not the highest lifeform, nor or we indespensible as such in the great circle of life. The world's people must look to the First Nations people of the western hemisphere for the understanding of how to be in proper relation with the rest of creation. Listen to Oren Lyons, listen to John Trudell. Most of the responses I am seeing are coming from people with, for lack of a better phrase, a euro-centric mindset; the same mindset that that brought us to our present condition. Until we return to this understanding, to living within the original instructions, there are no solutions; only short term ways of dealing with things, grasping at straws. Electric cars, going vegan. There were no vegans in the americas in 1491. If the native people had been allowed to continue their way of life, we would still be able to drink out of any body of water. they had this understanding. Many people are going to have to go away. Very painful times are on the horizon, this is inevitable. At the same time a future of peace and reconciliation (with each other as well as the rest of creation) is possible. Mother Earth is changing herself in order to survive. We must do the same. It seems to me to be more about being in harmony with our mother than about concerted political/social efforts. Strengthen your bonds with the earth, hold your children close and teach them it is not about the internet, it's about the inner net. Quit surfing the cloud and go to the dreamtime. Look for the original instructions. 

Jim Byrd

human being

 

on 24th May 2013 said:

Just keep trying ....we can't KNOW the future

.

on 24th May 2013 said:

Positive action and something to bring the issue more into the mainstream - a pop concert like BandAid, but this time ClimateAid bringing together musicians to make a big splash and give politicians the message that this is what a large proportion of voters require. Start a network of fun runs as Cancer Research UK has done - I suggested this to Oxfam years ago. It has to be fun, engaging, and profile raising. I know that these kinds of things look a bit frivolous but actually, they could start a national movement....

And be proud of activism - 'even a dead fish can go with the flow' - it takes courage to take a minority stand. And you know what? To the people who think that the individual makes little if any difference - maybe so, but so much better not to be part of the problem.

Erica Neustadt 

on 24th May 2013 said:

Humanity is on a collision course with a number of natural controls of which climate change is but one. We can't avoid this because it's written in our very DNA and it follows that it's pointless to become too angst ridden about these controls or to wish we had a key to unlock the gates to an impossible utopia... though again, to do so is written clearly in our DNA too.

Ultimate doom and gloom or perfect salvation are as equally unlikely. Provided electorate majorities stay educated and reasoned, shun extremism and simply concentrate on keeping the politics of the world's real power brokers broadly centrist, then through a myriad of extant mechanisms and human ingenuity, we'll maintain a reasonable chance of mitigating the severities as inevitable controls bite. I for one remain guardedly confident that humanity will manage to do this reasonably well going forward, though the path will be tough, it'll no doubt get tougher and it will often tend to be brutal on the sensibilities of the faint-hearted.

In summary, the assuredness of the burgeoning, unwitting masses that they live on an ever-benevolent planet will be exploded for the myth it is in the coming century or two, but the two-legged rats will still be scurrying away down the road for a good while yet...

on 24th May 2013 said:

One thing we can all do is get involved in the global power shifthttp://act.350.org/sign/global_power_shift/

 

This will be a series of mobilisations around the world targeting political and corporate levers of power, shifting power away from the fossil fuels industry and sparking the kind of visionary transformation we need to fight the climate crisis.  We know what the solutions are, so let's act now.

on 24th May 2013 said:

Seriously, everyone, let's support the only political party in this country that believes in a greener, fairer future for all. Political change is the only way to achieve our aims. Check out the Green Party's website: http://www.greenparty.org.uk/ or their facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/thegreenparty

Thanks, Andree

on 24th May 2013 said:

In my experience, most people who bang on about living a low carbon lifestyle, have decided not to fly, eat meat etc can do so because they were born into comfortable middle class families and did all their carbon gorging earlier in life. I got pulled into this and spent the last 8 years denying myself, having cold, wet summers in UK, returning to work feeling exhausted and depressed! I'm not dng it anymore, all it does is alienate my friends and family and leave me feeling sad and resentful. Changing our individual lifestyles is p****** in the wind, it's too late and this is too big and I do not want to be alone on my death bed, bitter and twisted with my only comfort being that I saved the planet from maybe 30 tons of CO2. This does not mean I am partying, I will continue to grow veg, use a wood burner to heat my home, use public transport whenever possible and raise awareness where ever I can, but I am also being realistic and trying to live somewhere between to two extremes we always seem to migrate towards.

on 24th May 2013 said:

We need a catastrophe to happen quickly to jolt people and governments into action. If that doesn't happen, and probably even if it does, the end result will be wandering, starving, crazed bands of climate change refugees in violent opposition to intentional communities of people who saw this coming and prepared for it. Survivors will end up living in a medieval society without the skills to provide for what we might now consider as basics. chuyen luoi thep và may photocopy Please do not despair. There are very many of us moving toward producing less co2, working to convince others to do the same, many inspired by you. Maybe it will be enough. Even if it isn't, it is what we must do. Right now I am going out into my little garden and appreciate all the creatures there.

on 24th May 2013 said:

For years I have tried to live a low carbon lifestyle, denying myself of meat or driving a car, heating my flat with a woodburner, growing my own fruit nd veg, no holidays in the sun, struggling through cold wet summers, returning to work in September feeling exhausted and depressed. I am now realising my efforts are of little value, in the face of global industrial growth it's a case of p****** in the wind! None of us can stop climate change, it's far far bigger than us and would need massive political action on a global scale to even slow it down. I don't have children, thankfully, and my stance now is to connect with others and prepare as much as I can to survive the challenges that lie ahead. It's a scary time we are living in!

on 24th May 2013 said:

As Buckminster Fuller says you gotta make the old system obsolete and to make that happen the focal epicentre of change is the economy. green economics (or green politics for that matter) alone hasn't been enough to influence change because it tweaks the old system, which self adjusts. Luckily, the rise of the information era/economy is making the industrial era/economy obsolete and forcing fundamental shifts but is it happening fast enough? we are now in a race against time. Therefore, the best focus of efforts, in my mind, is in the creation of the new community led collaborative economy/system. apologies for the self plug but i talk more about it here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ya6zndBObHY

on 24th May 2013 said:

The problem is clearly psychological. Our society is going mad. See www.ecopsychology.org.uk and www.ecopsychologyuk.ning.com. However, ultimately it seems to me that there are simply too many humans. But I don't believe we will ever manage to control our population on a global level, so we will most likely be culled by nature in some way, and that will be very messy and painful, along with so many  lifeforms who are innocent in this. So - short of a miracle (and they do happen quite alot actually) I don't think we can change the way we are heading. But there is still SO MUCH to be done to make amends with the earth, and to make our lives as good as possible NOW. Simple kindness/compassion towards self and all others is what is at the heart of everything and it can go a very long way.

Mary-Jayne

on 24th May 2013 said:

Hey there,

Hope you're well.
My (incomplete and flawed but hopefully useful/interesting) take on it in my new book if you're interested. It seems that carbon cuts and clean energy don't make any difference without parallel efforts to constrain flows of fossil fuels. That's where the battle lies -- as 350 have clocked. That and getting carbon out of the air -- e.g. perhaps via better land use which if we're lucky could also sort out the food problem.
BTW in case you missed it, here's the Keeling graph in context (best not in Safari which has a flashing bug). Last one is the scary one as you say.
Not sure any mainstream scientists are predicting most of Europe as desert and hundreds of cities under water in the next fifty years. Hardly reassuring but a bit early to be thinking about infanticide in my view!
Duncan Clark
on 24th May 2013 said:

Dear Franny,

I agree the situation is horrifying, but I think most people (including me) are really turned off by attempts to hammer home the worst case scenario. I mean its more than I can bear to imagine. I think messages of hope are much more motivational. I really wish you all the best with your campaign and so I'm suggesting for a start that telling people about your friend who plans to kill herself and her kids if the endtimes come is scary in the wrong way and won't get the reaction you're looking for. Strategic lobbying is needed to get some kind of international agreement - the first option you put in your e-mail is the only one that has a hope of making a difference, as I'm sure you know.
Best of luck, and please stay hopeful!
Magdalen
on 24th May 2013 said:
Hello Franny,
Good to hear from you again but yes we have reached a landmark with the Keeling lab reporting the 400 ppm carbon dioxide level having been breached three weeks ago. 
You and "Stupid" with Spanner Films have had a large exosure globally yet governments do not seem to have responded. Our current chancellor of the exchequer is encouraging fracking in the area in which I live. The proposed aeolian power station at Wellow on the Isle of Wight has just been rejected, with loud cheers from the NIMBYs - it would have been in a field where cattle graze and would have left them undisturbed. The Jet Stream has moved south and we are freezing just four weeks off mid-Summer. Sandy and huge tornadoes hit the USA. The Arctic sea ice is melting. 
If all this is happening and the media are more concerned with, possibly, a terrorist attack in Woolwich, what can we do?
At the end of the day, whatever we do here or in Europe will only have a minimal affect but I do not see that as an excuse for doing nothing. A frivolous suggestion would be to expose Viscount Monkton to media ridicule. He and his fellow Daily Mail contributing purveyors of disinformation are largely responsible for the complacent attitude which is rife in this country. The recent success of UKIP, for whom Monkton is the Environmental spokesman, is also a worrying trend. To see European migrants as a greater threat than Climate Change suggests that some of us just don't get it. 
OK so the first step that I would propose is to get a "critical mass" of concerned citizens together. We could talk to FOE and Greenpeace along with the many other groups, including the Green Party, who are already on board. We all march down the M1 from Birmingham to Westminster, which would disrupt traffic for at least five days and get more media attention than a peaceful rally in Hyde Park or the Thames embankment would do. If the government could ignore the anti Iraq War rally then these mild, though massive, protests are ineffective: we need something with more impact; something more than a nine day wonder. 
You, Franny, are a proven mover and shaker and you have the contacts and "presence" and we need you and people like Joanna Lumley, who can attract media attention. Obscure people like me would be ignored by the media and we need the media to bring these serious matters before the public and keep them there. So thanks for all you have done and are doing. I am sure you will receive some more effective suggestions than mine but, hey, in a brainstorming session every ridiculous suggestion could lead to something practical.

Kindest regards
Chris Merron
on 24th May 2013 said:
Hi,
For bizarre reasons I won't go into, a disappointed minor government person coming back from the Copenhagen conference that was meant to fix it all, said to me words to the effect of, they won't change anything until the climate actually breaks.
Will that be too late? Probably, but too late never comes really. It will cost a lot more than prevention but that is what Stern told us all those years ago.
So we are all going to be much much poorer for a couple of hundred years but most of us still here. 
Keep up the good work. Every day sooner that the penny drops will be ten days sooner that our great grandchildren live sustainably in an improving world.
Michael
on 24th May 2013 said:

Dear Franny:

Some of my thoughts in this increasingly desperate situation are as follows.  We must either prevent the release of carbon-based GHGs (e.g. by reducing the burning and decay of ecosystems, by increasing the carbon-efficiency of our industrial, transport and urban systems, or by capturing them at source and storing them), or remove them from the air (e.g. by growing trees or splitting free GHGs into elemental carbon and storing it under ground or water), or both.  All tactics that contribute to these results will be needed, but human effort will not be applied without adequate financial rewards, and nor will the necessary technology be developed and used.  There are at least three major constraints that can be targetted immediately:
  • going beyond Kyoto, a high and stable price for conserved carbon is going to be needed if investors in any aspect of carbon mitigation are to have confidence enough to invest, which might be achieved with a sufficient application of private or public capital to the purchase of future carbon gains (e.g. a credible commitment to buy enough conserved carbon at a reasonable price at some future date, say 2030) - see also http://www.juliancaldecott.com/news/news.php/393 on crowd-sourcing a price for conserved carbon;
  • going beyond charcoal, the discovery of catalysts able to facilitate the breakdown of atmospheric GHGs to create elemental carbon at open-air temperatures and pressures, which might be achieved through aimed research (e.g. by an oil major or government laboratory) or by offering an international prize for catalysts with specified functionality which may already have been discovered but are currently unused; and
  • going beyond rent-seeking, the recognition that each tonne of carbon release that is prevented or reversed is equally valuable and should be equally rewarded, with incentives directed to promote (a) participation by all people everywhere, (b) the distribution of rewards to all those who help determine outcomes, and (c) early action rather than late action, which can be achieved through careful analysis and correction of weaknesses in governance, tenure and incentives. 
So, in practical terms, we could lean on some of the big sovereign wealth funds (e.g. Norway's) to commit to a decent carbon price, and/or organise millions of people to do likewise, and/or get a prize fund for catalysts organised and advertised, and/or do several things from your list (of which a 'green social democracy' political movement seems most attractive).
Best, Julian

By the way, I asked my son (who is professionally involved with all this) whether he had any reassuring thoughts for you.  His answer was "Scale deployment of clean energy, resource efficient technologies, etc etc and the gradual, purposeful divestment from polluting, unsustainable assets. Which by 2050/60, means we're close to the clean, green future we keep talking about. No way near a 450ppm pathway I'm afraid and plenty of biodiversity will be destroyed along the way. We'll also intensify the hell out of agriculture."  Not sure how we can intensify agriculture with no biodiversity and no water, but hey ...

on 24th May 2013 said:

HI Franny,

This is a very small ray of hope, even is it is 50 years too late. 
that we have all been waiting for?
The trials of climate change will create stronger communities on many levels...
The trials of climate change do mean that 'we are all in this together', not on an individual to individual level, where of course we will get high levels of inequalities, but in local geographical areas we are likely to need to support neighbours...so certain civic infrastructures may resurrect themselves. 
It would probably be sensible to move away from very dense population centres, but I can't see myself doing it in the near future...
best
Jess
We are finally about to launch this in schools. Kind of excited, but don't like to think it is too late. You never know miracles might be sent our way....
on 24th May 2013 said:
hi franny

we can do it.dont know how yet.as a good agnostic th first thing i am doing is reaching for my dead mum's rosary beads & praying for our childrens' sake.

blessing

merrilyn fahey,australia
on 24th May 2013 said:

I have no idea Franny, I feel desperate and I feel stumped. Part of me, the stupid part, hopes the scientists got it all wrong. Stupid.

I have 2 kids as well.
Take care,
Simon
on 24th May 2013 said:

extreme depression and as a mum with a baby, and v little time to try and do something through work and so hard to see what will create cut-through, i'm tempted by the cyanide option, otherwise head to an island...

Rachel

on 24th May 2013 said:


Dear Franny,

Party, party, party is very tempting - have you seen "Seeking a friend for the end of the world"? Great film!

However, you know that 99% of the people you sent this to can't and won't party and gorge on fossil fuels.

So what to do? Seriously? Elect "our very own" Ed. And hope he doesn't forget us. He got an A in A-level Physics - there is hope!

Chin up, enjoy Eva (she has a 50:50 chance of living to 2112) and one day she can get together with my two girls and win this.

400 ppm is arbitrary - it really was just as bad at 399.

Don't give up! What are you doing early November? A chap you may not know here in Cambridge is giving a talk about the arctic ice melt at my school. It would be great to have you there as well - make a real party of it! He's a real expert and doesn't hold punches:http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice?fb=native

All best wishes,

Andrew Harmsworth

on 24th May 2013 said:
Dear Franny,
I find your emails most insightful! This was my response to your question:
- I left my day job last month so that I can devote myself full time to environmental conservation
- I decided to focus mainly on ocean issues since the oceans are both our best help in limiting climate change and also particularly threatened at this point (see www.bigoceansupport.net)
- I applied to study conservation leadership
- I met up with 350.org
- I followed your suggestion and supported Greg's film since James Lovelock has been an inspiration

Good luck to you! 

Torsten 
on 24th May 2013 said:

Hi Franny

I couldn't resist replying to your request for comment when I really should be out on my allotment planting seeds.....

My response is much coloured by my experience in the transition movement.  4 (or was it 5?) years ago I started a transition initiative here in my local town ...we showed AoS (once even made a surplus on it!!) we went to the Wave etc... then I bought Alexis Rowell's book 'Communities, Councils and a Low Carbon future', became a parish councillor, started a 20s Plenty campaign and eventually late last year (2 years on..) I (re) started the local Green Party and we stood 5 candidates in May's elections.
I too wonder what the hell we can do - quitting and splurging out and putting up the shutters is not for me - we must tackle the problem!
Bearing in mind the government has gone into reverse - abandoning any pretence of being green (see .http://t.co/Bza6hLAKHv) and the economy is in grinding people into the ground (seehttp://t.co/6YJpZWzGhk) the only options are transition at a local non-Political level and the Green Party (why start a new party when there is already one there....).  Whether I can contribute more by giving up my job to work in Green politics (were I willing) is hard to say as I am reliant on my income and I am not sure I would make a good full time politician.
If the green movement stopped being so divisive and rallied behind the Green party we would have a much better chance of saving ourselves and our futures.
I must get out onto my allotment..second 5 pole plot started 2 months ago....something else that transition taught me...work on improving your personal resilience!
Dave

on 24th May 2013 said:

Don't despair, Magda. Steiner will bring it under control.

on 24th May 2013 said:

I think everyone should stop voting for the mainstream parties who have failed this country so spectacularly. Put our crosses where are views are and vote foe the Green party. If there's not a Green Party candidate in your area stand yourself whether it's local, mayoral, national, constituency or European.
Until we have politicians at all levels of the political spectrum instituting policies against climate change we may as well light up an oil well.
Let's put our energies into politics rather than one-off campaigns.
Andree Frieze
@andree_frieze
And yes I am a Green Party member, but only since last summer when I had an epiphany. Vote Green to save the planet 

on 24th May 2013 said:
Clearly, the one entity who have put and kept us in the dark ages of energy use, and are the ultimate cause of all our global warming problems, are the big oil companies, with the coal and nuclear companies not far behind.  Their influence and control over the world's governments has all-permeating and unceasing since the dawn of the Industrial revolution, and is as strong as ever today.
There's lots of practical, workable, clean, alternative energy sources and processes that have been developed by pioneering individuals and small groups ("zero-point energy" being the most intriguing), but the oil companies always see to it they don't get development funding, and/or buy out the patents of all these so they can suppress them forever and that's been the end of each workable form of alternative energy for the entire time automobiles have been use.
What we need is a world body with teeth who can force the oil companies to either develop these alternate forms of energy themselves,m and get the world off oil (and other fossil fuels), or "get off the pot" and allow the development of alternate energy by others.
If this doesn't happen as soon as, say, now, then all IS lost for humanity and Earth, except those ultra rich who have their plans in place to live in key areas both above and below ground to survive, while the rest of humanity dies one way or another, which is what the rich want to happen, except for a relatively small slave contingent they fully control to solve their daily cleaning and maintenance problems.
More about "Zero-Point-Energy" here:
Catch ya later.  Bye for now.
Dan Fiebiger
Portland, Oregon
on 24th May 2013 said:
Hi Franny -
If there's any hope at all it lies in the soils.  Two videos to view:  http://www.ted.com/talks/allan_savory_how_to_green_the_world_s_deserts_and_reverse_climate_change.html, and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Q1VnwcpW7E&feature=youtube_gdata_player.  While we devoutly hope that international agreements and emissions reductions will work, we can sequester enough carbon in the soils to reduce atmospheric carbon back to pre-industrial levels despite vested interests and governmental intransigence.
If you have further questions after viewing them, I will be happy to help.
Best regards,
Adam Sacks
Lexington, MA, USA
on 24th May 2013 said:
Hey Franny...

No, I had not heard that news.., and yes..., it is shocking. But not a surprise.

To answer your question.., no.., I do not see a (short term) positive outcome.

It scares me to imagine what world Eva will grow old in, what will be expected of her just to survive.

I have no children.., if we had, I would bring them up fully aware of what was going on, and I would prepare them for a world we do not dare to think about.

And that's the point. For everybody involved, realising the effects of our actions, and realising the effort involved in serious change is just too much.

You know, you speak out, you made a film and went all out in Kopenhagen. So very few are willing to go that far, me included.

I do not see a bright future.., oh.., eventually. The coming period might become known as the second dark age in human kind and will last a couple of hundred years. But humans will survive.., and eventually thrive. The only thing we can hope for is that they learn from the mistakes.

But, then again.., humans are well known for repeating their history.

It appals me that the "400ppm issue" is not splattered all over the news, that every program on tv spends some time on it, that all blogger write about it.., that politicians.., well...

Anyway.., as long as we wait for our government to act, or some commercial company to come up with the solution.., we are, sadly but unmistakably.., doomed.

I do not see any reason or any sign that the ship will be turned away from the rocks.., none at all...
So, I enjoy it while it lasts and prepare for the inevitable.

Thanks for letting me know.., and thanks for asking.

Cheers,

Rogier

on 24th May 2013 said:

Just back from a beautiful hike in the mountains in Colorado. Everything is just like it was when I was a kid in the 1960s.  Nature doesn't share your neuroses.

on 24th May 2013 said:

We should stop reproducing more human beings and crowding out everything else from the planet. Nothing, no matter how much "green" we think we are trying to be, no matter how many solar panels we use in place of fossil fuels, no matter how many paper bags we use in place of plastic, no matter how make bikes we use instead of cars, no matter how many of us become vegetarians or vegans in lieu of eating meat and on and on are we going to stop the destruction of this planet unless we stop the arrogant reproduction of our species.

Each one of those cute little babies being born brings us closer to the destruction of the Earth. But we want it that way. We don't want to stop. So that's the way it is going to be until the Earth is so full of humans and devoid of plants and other animals that there will be no place to go and the human race will become extinct much as the dinosaurs once did.

 

on 24th May 2013 said:

it's a pity this conversation isn't on facebook, twitter etc - we could see each other's identities, and with the latter we could see what the most 'popular' comments were?

on 24th May 2013 said:

We are all being manipulated by the best liars in the world. Being elected to political office is like winning the gold metal in the Olympics of lying. Becoming the CEO of a major corporation, president of a big bank, or manager of a major media outlet is similar. We are being lied to because knowledge is power, and to those who are addicted to power, the ability to lie is the greatest weapon they have against us. They are very, very good at lying.

Conservatives believe the lie that people all over the world "hate us for our freedoms" and that brown people are going to goose step into their living rooms. They believe that marijuana will turn their daughters into hookers. Crazy. Yes, the world has some bad people in various countries. Yes, some drugs are dangerous and may ruin some people's lives. No -- the world will not be destroyed by a few bad people or a few popular drugs. Still, the lies they believe make conservatives do horrible, self-enslaving things. The lies make them live in a world devoid of hope and laughter.

And progessives... Progressives are being lied to just as much as conservatives, and for the same reasons. They are lied to so that unscrupulous people may have power over them. One of the lies is that we are on the verge of a catastrophic climate shift that will destroy human civilization and drive the Earth to mass extinctions. Yes, pollution, poor land use, water resources -- these are all things which we need to work on. Yes, climate shifts have happened in the past. Yes, climate shifts will happen in the future -- but the dangers are being enormously exagerated. You have a future. Your children have a future. None of those futures include the climatic destruction of the things you love.

Don't despair. Concentrate on the things which you KNOW they cannot lie to you about. Look at how you love your children, how your friends make you laugh, how some work in your own back yard can make a barren spot into a garden. Those are things which you can see the truth of right in your own experience. Don't despair, don't believe men who have turned lying into a way of power over everything you do.

on 23rd May 2013 said:

Don't despair.

Do what you can personally to limit what you consume - energy and resource wise.

At the same time talk to everyone you know about the issues.

Also we need to stop growth gradually. Read " Enough is Enough" by Rob Dietz and Dan O'Neill about why and how we should change to a no growth economy. Talk to everyone about this and lobby politicians. We need to appeal to self interest. It will lead to happier people, with more free time and  greater equality in society. It is a win win for the vast majority of people - only the very rich would be opposed. Preach this.

 

Good luck!

on 23rd May 2013 said:

Franny, You've given a near perfect summary of the mess we've made and the choices we face. It staggers me that so many of us remain oblivious to the unimaginable dangers of a destabilised climate.

However, human nature being what it is, and always will be, I think the only hope now of climate restabilisation is through geoengineering.

Unfortunately, I fear there are two major problems with this. 1) I expect it is virtually impossible. 2) Even if it is possible, technically advanced civilisations will either not last long enough to figure it out, or will put all their engineering resources into weapons to protect their territories or steal others.

So, while I kid myself that science and engineering will come to the rescue, I'm still in the market for some cyanide pills, preferably with a shelf life of about 20 years, which I expect is when we will finally realise how really stupid we have been.

Brian

Dorset

on 23rd May 2013 said:

We need a catastrophe to happen quickly to jolt people and governments into action.  If that doesn't happen, and probably even if it does, the end result will be wandering, starving, crazed bands of climate change refugees in violent opposition to intentional communities of people who saw this coming and prepared for it.  Survivors will end up living in a medieval society without the skills to provide for what we might now consider as basics.  

I hope that I am wrong in my prediction because my preparations for it are feeble compared to what we are likely to be faced with.   To be effective, preparations have to be collective.  Transition Towns are on the right track but I suspect are not going to be secure enough to deal with the refugees.  That leaves me to conclude that the best bet is to find a very remote place to hide...a remote island somewhere that has adequate cultivatable land over 40 m above sea level.  

One preparation that everyone should make is to become vegan and experts in foraging.


on 23rd May 2013 said:

It makes me sad for the human race for those, who like above "it's hopeless" and are considering going on mindlessly and "enjoying everything thats still good".  although I am someone who likes to enjoy life, I believe that doing so in the most sustainable way possible should be our aim, and by encourgaing others to do the same we humans may just have a chance yet!!

So thats how I think the world will change, by trying to be a bit more sustainable everyday, by applauding others for their sustainable actions, and by encouraging others to do the same.

And, finally, thank you Franny, for your worrying and thought and action and encouragement, it is people like you who are reaching out to soo many others and really making a difference!

- Emily

on 23rd May 2013 said:

Hi Franny, its a bleak picture we have to contend with.  And some of the comments are pretty miserable in all kinds of ways!!  We've all got our pet bandwagons, of course, and this latest news simply gives us a chance to feel righteous about where we feel the solution lies.  Truth, of course, is fractal, so all the pieces matter - even those one might desire to kick into touch pretty damn smartly.  Working as I do in psychology, my own recent reflection is on the nature of our understanding of self in all of this.  It seems that even much of the very laudable and desirable positive work undertaken, and just about all that one might deem negative, is predicated on an idea of doing something about or to the planet.  Its as if we - even us activists - were standing outside.  The terror and challenge is that we aren't.  The history of the self has been a series of steps away from a sense of self that is intimate with the ecosystems and - as the great C4 doco Century of the Self tracks - this has been racked up again in the last 100 years.

As several of your correspondents notice, nature in some form or other is likely to roll on should the greater extremes eventuate, it is human nature that is both the greatest threat and at the greatest risk.  

With the exception of ecopsychology (recommend Andy Fisher's great book for starters) the psychology community has been largely silent about this.  Whilst practitioners are quick to be consulted and quoted on Princess Di's anorexia or the killers of Jamie Bulger, there is almost nothing on the addiction of consumption, or the likely experience of individuals having to face the deceptions and denials that each of us are physically and emotionally designed to pick up, not to mention good old mental common-sense.  Instead, there is a tendency to see individual and personal repsonses to the multiple stresses within the global system (as if the stresses can show up anywhaere else except in particular places) as discrete events and pathologies.  Much the same happens with the distortions of climate change, which show up as discrete and localised events.

It is about time the psychology of denial, and its symptoms and impacts on individuals' health and well-being, was brought into the frame.

Despair is an appropriate state to be in, but not for too long! As TS Eliot says "without hope, for to hope may be for the wrong thing".

If life has an inherent thrust and energy then one can surely feel when one is attuned to and aligned with it.  Following that sense opens the door to energised activity.  I feel one also needs to maintain an appropriate critique of one's own ever-changing understanding of the assumptions and meanings each of us has to draw from the experience to get it on the ground.

Reflecting on how understanding of self and where we fit has changed over the past 2500 years, and the attendant form that society has taken can be rewarding.  We're not only here because of our insatiable and arrogant entitlement and consumption, i believe we're here as part of an inevitable process of alienation.  In not having that named and processed, we are confronted with the need to change who we are without any idea that who we think we are [with all the terror attached to changing that] may not be anything like all that we can be or have been.

Transition - of whoch I am a keen part - hasn't really got its head around this yet - cos its tricky, loaded and counter to the mores of the day.  So we stay stuck.

And its changing.  Did you see the great movie Nora Bateson made about her father, Gregory Bateson?  Worth checking out.

Cheers

Mark in NZ

on 23rd May 2013 said:

Franny I watched Age of Stupid the day before meeting you briefly (at the micro-session downstairs at the Faith and the Environment event in Lancsater). Although I thought Age was something of a blunt instrument..... it was extremely compelling. It isn't alone, but is certainly one of the factors that's inspired me to turn my PhD research towards sustainable thinking (I'm working at the HighWire DTC). 

For me, the key to this is about finding ways of ensuring each individual's values are aligned such that they engender an awareness of the issues, and then... maybe... "we" can act (as a group). 

Something else that I found inspiring was the so-called 'overview' effect as described by astronauts here: http://vimeo.com/55073825

(although I'm somewhat sceptical about whether those astronauts have massively changed their lives as a result....)

So. I'm asking myself the question: how do you go about trying to effect peoples values? In fact, how do you go about trying to get people to even be aware of their values?

Although I'm certainly an atheist... my current thinking is along the lines of 'virtual religion'. Lets see where it goes....

Although 400ppm is an arbitrary figure. It brings it all into relief. It's terrifying.

on 23rd May 2013 said:

I lead a simple life - no car etc but I don't feel that is enough. I feel that the people who aren't asleep or in denial need to stand up and help those who are. 

I think there is the almost unbearable grief we need to feel and bear about what we are in imminent danger of losing  on our planet before we can change. How do we help ourselves and others go through this?

Dx

 

on 23rd May 2013 said:

Hi Franny –

 

I had the exact same reaction… which prompted me to compile some ideas about what people can do – individuals – to make a real difference. I tried to think of things which would have impact in and of themselves, but which could have powerful knock on effects when others do them as well.  Here's the post, titled "Top 5 Actions to Make a Difference in the Fight Against Climate Change."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kelly-rigg/top-5-actions-to-make-a-d_b_3309788.html?utm_hp_ref=climate-change

 

Cheers, Kelly

--

Kelly Rigg

Executive Director

Global Call for Climate Action

www.tcktcktck.org

Twitter: @kellyrigg

 

on 23rd May 2013 said:

3 years ago I have stopped using my car and only cycle everywhere. Despite the fact I am terribly fit and healthy, I saved a lot of money and feel like doing something, most people around me carry on with their way of life saying I am an alien and I am wasting my time, even the ones pretending to be eco friendly. I try to alert my family and friends about the consequences nowadays (poor weather they say). and their over heated houses, when outside it feels very good and no need to switch on the heating. Nobody cares... I cannot see anything else to do unfortunately. Hope and pray until they click? Keep up the good work. Fabien

on 23rd May 2013 said:

Dear Franny,

Don't despair! Despair doesn't allow for any solutions!

Just because we cannot see a workable solution from our present perspective, that doesn't mean that there isn't a solution, just that we can't see it yet.

Keep the end goal in mind and work out one step at a time.

I don't have a cure-all answer, but, just as the atmosphere is the most phenomenal balancing of miriad elements, so is the potential outcome of lots of humans wanting things to work out well, and each drop into that ocean makes a difference, even if it is not evident from the perspective of now, and your awesome film is a huge drop into that ocean, a drop which may well repercuss for a lot longer and in more fundamental ways than are yet understood or felt...

Thank you!

Emma

on 23rd May 2013 said:

Fanny I love your standpoint, every time I read what you write it resonates in me. Thank you for speaking out as you do.

Of course, I will keep on doing my miniscule bit.

Living the life that has meaning for me, as much as I can (in between all the bits that amount to being a rat in a wheel paying the mortgage etc).

Speaking out when possible, adding my voice, challenging the crap, supporting initiatives based on love and realistic viewpoints.

Supporting powering down - the recognition we all need to use less energy and resources year on year.

Continuing to tear my hair out at the insanity of it all.

Continuing to put myself in nurturing places where I can do something more than tear my hair out, where I'm around people I can trust, where I can play my music and build a little of the world I want to see.

x

on 23rd May 2013 said:

Dear Franny,

Please do not despair. There are very many of us moving toward producing less co2, working to convince others to do the same,  many inspired by you. Maybe it will be enough. Even if it isn't, it is what we must do. Right now I am going out into my little garden and appreciate all the creatures there. Love, M

on 23rd May 2013 said:

Governments are in the control of big business; big business is a raging bull called capitalism; capitalism thrives on greed.  Short of an unprecedent and unforseeable cut back in consumption by everyone in the 'developed' world, I fear we are heading, inexorably, towards a mass extinction event in a split second of geological time.  When the methane traps start releasing their stores in a big way then it will be time to say goodbye. In the meantime we should carry on fighting, hoping for the best but planning for the worst  

on 23rd May 2013 said:

We may, indeed, be doomed but I'm an optimist of sorts. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best is my philosophy. So I'm doing what I can with a smile on my face, in the hope that that my optimism and enthusiasm will infect others. Doom and gloom hasn't won any hearts and minds so far, and psychology says that people move most easily towards the outcome they can best visualise. We need to create a vision of a greener, fairer, better future so damn desirable that everybody wants it; slowly but surely humanity will move towards it. Will technology advance quickly enough to compensate for the delay in changing our habits? I doubt it, but it will mitigate the effects to some extent. If we give up hope, our demise becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy.

on 23rd May 2013 said:

 

With the emergence of nerve based learning we have been on a two million year long journey that took us away from the garden of Eden that our gene based learning ancestors inhabited (look at the Bonobo apes as the emergent "humans" of today) and that inevitably set up a massive internal conflict and upset within our "souls" (Especially males who were not kept connected to the original path of cooperative existence as females were by their nurturing role). This upset/anger has produced a world in which we (mostly unconsciously) attack the innocent in order justify our movement away from the natural order of love and cooperation, order of matter and meaning. The "destruction" of the planet by us is a symptom of our self loathing and our resignation to this state of turmoil. When we recognise that we have been on an heroic journey, learn again that we are basically all good, heal the upset within and allow ourselves to live in cooperative loving harmony then we can go back to the garden, a knowing and fully conscious part of the world.

 

With thanks to Jeremy Griffith - Australian Biologist - for his lectures bannered under the "world transformation movement "

 

on 23rd May 2013 said:

Peak Oil - with the subsequent powerdown - will create all the right conditions for a dieback of our species, which is pretty much the only way this planet can continue to function. If human beings haven't exterminated themselves by the end of this century (nukes, failed nuke power plants,etc.) whoever's left will be in two camps: Wandering, starving, crazed bands of climate change refugees, or intentional communities of people who saw this coming and prepared for it.

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